Whether you're a computer dealer, security dealer, or A/V dealer, you should be thinking about whether you want to get into the home automation and home networking businesses.
These industries are on the verge of booming. Many homes already have two PC's, and companies are hard at work on products that connect computers using the existing powerline and phoneline network in each home. Wireless networking via radiofrequency (RF) or infrared (IR) wave is also being devleoped. All of these technologies will make it possible to install both data networks and control networks (for automation) into tens of millions of homes.
Home networking allows every member of a household to share a high-speed Internet connection, as well as printers and backup peripherals. Home automation lets control your home's devices and appliances (for instance, lights, HVAC system, kitchen appliances, security system, etc.) via computer. The computer can then be programmed so these appliances behave in ways you want. Two examples:
Forrester Research says, "North American consumers are gobbling up new technology at an unprecedented rate. Starting with access to the Web in 1994, North America entered the Digital Decade-a 10-year period during which 50% of consumers will adopt a digital lifestyle. By 2003, these households will weave critical technologies- PCs, cellular phones, and the Net-into their lives."
Cahners In-Stat Group says, "The home networking market will grow 600 percent in the United States by 2003?About 21 million U.S. households will have multiple PCs in 1999, and 12 percent of those households will have some sort of home network installed?the market will be worth $1.4 billion by 2003."
TeleChoice, Inc. reports that 800,000 cable modems and 159,150 DSL modems have been sold, as of June, 1999. Between January and June of this year, U.S. cable modem sales grew 60%, and DSL modem sales grew 300%. (Broadband is expected to be a major catalyst for the digital household infrastructure, since once a broadband Internet connection is introduced into the home, multiple family members inevitably want to share it-hence, the need for a home LAN.)
Cahners In-Stat Group says worldwide DSL modem shipments are expected to top one million by year-end, and that broadband Internet access is forecast to be installed in 45 million US homes by 2002.
Cyber Dialogue, Inc. says there are currently 15.7 million workers (14% of the U.S. labor force) spending at least part of their work week telecommuting from home, up from 4 million in 1990. The company anticipates 28 million telecommuters (25% of the workforce) by 2005. (Telecommuting is another major catalyst for the digital household infrastructure because it introduces business-class computer products and services, including broadband and LANs, into the home. Also, the employer participates financially in building the infrastructure.)
The Consumer Electronics Manufacturers Association (CEMA) says the home theater business was worth $8.6 billion last year. 20 percent of U.S. households own a home theater system, compared with 4 percent in 1993, and the home theater business is growing at a rate of 5% per year.
Parks Associates forecasts that the residential LAN market will reach nearly $1.9 billion in 2004. "We believe that computer networking will be joined by distributed entertainment and home control applications as key drivers to this market," says a spokesperson.
Installing a home automation system or home network is a complex tasks. Few people are going to want to do it themselves, however, even if the computer industry does succeed at producing ultra-simple products. They will be calling in a home automation/home networking specialist.
If that's a role you wish to play, you need to start preparing now. The business model may not be simple, but it is highly profitable. Start by reading everything you can on the emerging fields of home automation and home networking, and by setting up some of these systems in your own home or office.
You'll find hundreds of articles on all aspects of running a home automation and home networking business, including marketing, operations, and technology, at The Home Automation Times?, http://www.homeautomationtimes.com
By
Hillary Rettig
Home automation and home networking are both "killer apps"-when people see what these systems can do they want them. Here is some market research on how popular these systems will be:
"At 6 a.m. on weekdays, but on 8 a.m. on weekends, disarm the security system, open the blinds, raise the thermostat to 72 degrees, and start the coffee maker." "If it's 3:00 p.m. and a window breaks, send me a page so I can call my kid and see what happened. If it's 3:00 a.m. and a window breaks, call the police and my security company, flood my property with lights, sound a loud alarm on every television and PC in the house.
Other Resources:
Organizations
CABA(Continental Automated Building Association)
CEBus Industry Council
CEDIA (Custom Electronic Design & Installation Association)
CEMA (Consumer Electronics Manufacturers Assn.)
Home Automation Association
Home Phoneline Networking Alliance
Home Radio Frequency Working Group
LonMark Interoperability Association
NAHB (National Association of House Builders)
Security Industry Association (this site has lots of useful info, including white papers, fact sheets, and links.)